Up-dating scenarios to keep the strategy focused

Just back from beautiful Sweden, where, for the 2nd time in three weeks we had the chance to lead a client through a review of scenarios developed together many years earlier. Interesting to note that – taking the set of scenarios as a whole – we had captured the most important developments that then took place, even if we did not identify how they would happen (e.g. in one case the additional competition did not come from an existing rival expanding, but from a start up). What did strike me however, is (when re-drafting the scenarios for the next five years) we will need to pull in quite a few other issues (e.g. 3D printing and its possible impact on business models and value chains) that were not really so important five years ago. I sense the disruption potential in the next five years is much higher than it was in the past decade (and that was not exactly a calm ten years…).