The latest @Hamburg Futures Network was great, as we both talked about the role of games in futures thinking, and then played one – “Thing From the Future”. The concept is relatively simple – There are four categories (Archetype, Terrain, Object, Mood). Each category has a pile of cards, and each card has one word […]

I just read this piece on “imagining future public careers via fiction”. https://atelierdesfuturs.org/q264-imaginer-les-metiers-publics-de-demain-via-la-fiction/ It fascinated me particularly having already been part of the creation of the scenario that served as the background for a theatre piece written for the Deutsches Theater in Berlin (thanks to @Jutta Doberstein for that !). In this case, the authors […]

For mes amis francophones, or those who are prepared to use an automatic translation machine, let me draw your attention to a recent article about the role of gaming in preparing for surprise events, such as a cyber-security attack. The particular interest of this article is it draws on four different individuals an compares and […]

Getting ready for a new era in the GIZ Big changes are on the horizon at GIZ, with a new era of work set to kick off in 2026. As we gear up for this transformation, 2025 will serve as a pivotal year for laying the groundwork. This means not only institutional and organizational shifts, […]

Just completed training as a white belt (lowest level) facilitator for Climate Fresk. Together with @Rosario, our ambition is to use the game in the local community here to develop a conversation around what becoming more climate friendly and sustainability means for (in our case) a suburb of Hamburg. Just a couple of thoughts around […]

Who: 40 CEOs and senior executives from companies across France, participated today at a Shift Forum organised by the Shift Project. What: They played a serious game. The objective was to decarbonise the production of a fictional fertiliser company whilst keeping the firm 1. competitive, 2. resilient and 3. with a good reputation. What outcome: […]

A fond farewell to Nairobi and the 3rd Humanitarian Energy Conference (HEC). This is one of the few events where you meet both global institutions (UN agencies, INGOs…) and grass roots entrepreneurs (in this case many of whom were also displaced people or refugees who have started up businesses to offer renewable energy). Given that […]

Just presented Robert Grayston as an example of a societal resilience game at @Connections (UK) Professional Wargame Practitioners conference in Brunel University. I had great company with presentations from Robert Grayston and Joe Liano in the same slot. As always, I tried to maximised audience interaction, and e.g. asked what the public saw as being […]

Hamburg Futures Network #5 Gestern Abend fand die neueste Edition des Hamburg Futures Network bei Port-F statt. Aufgrund der Urlaubszeit war die Gruppe diesmal klein, aber sehr fein. Besonders drei Eindrücke haben mich nachhaltig geprägt: Diesmal hatten wir die Gelegenheit, mit jeder Person zu sprechen, und ich führte wirklich faszinierende Gespräche, die von Methoden zur […]

C’était un grand plaisir de revoir une quinzaine d’amis à Paris hier, lors de la quatrième édition du dîner des prospectivistes ! J’ai eu des conversations passionnantes sur l’avenir de la prospective, sur les tendances socioculturelles des jeunes en milieu rural, et même sur les machines qui servent un verre de vin dans des conditions […]

Professionally I help others think about how the future may impact decisions they should take today. It is therefore unsurprising that I spend some of my private time doing the same thing. As a member of the “Blankense Future Forum”, we have many projects going, for instance on the future mobility needs of our bit […]

It is great to work with a client over multiple years, to then see how they progress, and if they are on track with plans we made earlier. In the past this was mostly with my chemical company clients, but since 2016 I have had the pleasure of accompanying one part of the German Energy […]

Thanks to the initiative of the OECD secretariat, my colleagues and I had the great pleasure of leading a group of over 60 people from administrations in 24 different parts of the world through a tabletop exercise on the future of the semiconductor industry these last two days. It was outstanding to see that all […]

In a rapidly changing world, foresight is an essential mindset needed. It was great last week to have had the chance to gather a group of 25 like-minded individuals in a dynamic 2D space (Kumospace) from private and public sectors located in Africa, Asia and Europe. Participants were encouraged to navigate in and out of […]

As I discovered today, a morning in the library can be great fun – and better still if it can be used to start a conversation about how to increase resilience of our local community. An initiative of the @B @R and I had the pleasure of running two parallel games of Neustart. Our 16 […]

Wieviel Zeit kostbarer Regierungsarbeit hat das Bundesjustizministerium jetzt zur Verhinderung der EU Lieferketten Richtlinie (EU LK) eingesetzt? Der Presse nach war die FDP in letzter Zeit hoch aktiv dabei, um andere EU Mitglieder mit ihren Bedenken und Ablehnung mitzureißen. Motto, Bürokratiemonster und womöglich juristische Folgen die man der Wirtschaft ersparen wolle. Bedeutet dies, dass soziale […]

As any professional facilitator of events knows, the architecture of a conference/seminar/workshop/meeting space determines how conversations will (or will not) take place. E.g. having participants seated at a distance from each other, with tables in between, gives licence to aggression and heated exchanges – it creates an „us“ and „them“ mindset, and I am separated […]

A couple of personal take aways that I draw from a project run for a human resources department. These are my personal take, and deliberately leave out many (much more specific) client learnings. The need for specific technical expertise is not going away – in some cases it may be vital e.g. to check that […]

Very much enjoyed the Luxembourg Strategy event yesterday. Here is a country leading the way by setting out a vision – which has been wind tunnelled for robustness in different scenarios – for a zero carbon future. Moreover, it not just promotes carbon mitigation, it takes explicit account of inclusivity – the need to keep citizens on-board. […]

Back this week from an interesting project to help an company plan the energy transition of one of its (energy-intensive) sites.  A couple of observations: The legal certainty created by the Dutch Carbon Tax provides something very tangible to build off. Unlike the Emissions Trading System, it provides a very clear indication of the price […]

(About to be) stuck in an airport? We need more highspeed nonstop train connecting major cities now! This is my personal opinion and wish of many of us here at 4Sing. We are committed to lower our CO2 footprint – which is largely caused by travel. Hence, in the last months we all happily shifted […]

In the last decades a number of political movements have won rural voters with promises to defend local farmers against global capitalism, commonly known as „Food Populism and Politics“. This has been easy enough, as farmers perceive agricultural policy to be an existential issue, whereas the (much more numerous) consumers of food products have, until […]

If you are currently despairing, try “The ministry for the future” by Kim Stanley Robinson. It is a work of fiction that does not fall into the trap of being utopian. Each step forward is assorted with caveats, resistance, and steps back. But it suggests how a combination of human action, technology, and new thinking […]

When I first (officially) started working on multi-stakeholder foresight work 30 years ago, the community was not so big. Fast forward to today, and the numbers engaged has rocketed – and correspondingly it has become harder to know everybody else. It was therefore a great pleasure to see how the Nomads Foundation and I were […]

A great pleasure to have co-moderated the Union for Mediterranean’s trade and investment forum today for the third time. I had the pleasure of two excellent panels – on trade facilitation and sustainable investment – brimming with expertise. Among the many gems, the things that struck me were: 1. Progress on trade facilitation in the region […]

I very much enjoyed facilitating an on-line conversation of foresight managers from four companies with global reach earlier this week. It would be impossible to do justice to everything that was said, but three new insights for me were: 1.      How we measure success: A. Did we get it right? We will never be able to predict […]

Should governments conduct foresight? Or just react faster? Thanks to Alun Rhydderch for talking with me about this theme. An active participant in the Global X-Center Network, Alun has a lot of experience working with and for various governments

A highly enjoyable workshop with a client on Monday about the challenges of returning to the office after the Summer. We agreed it will not be going „back to usual“ as: A. COVID will still be an issue, even where vaccinations are widespread. B. We have learnt a lot thanks to COVID and want to […]

John Casti is another co-founder of the Global X-Centers network, and a prolific author on surprises and resilience. Here is his (deliberately very short) take on anticipating eXtreme events:

4Sing is the local branch of the Global X-Centers Network. For eleven years now, we have been working with researchers and practitioners on five continents to identify a theory of surprise and to work out what resilience means and requires of organizations.  Just as a teaser on some of the work done, I have interviewed […]

J’ai animé un séminaire avec 50 participants super intéressants ce vendredi et samedi passé pour discuter de l’avenir d’une organisation associative en France. La vision propose de créer de la propriété intellectuelle pour le partager avec d’autres (soit en le donnant gratis, soit en établissant des organisations qui le répandissent) est une bouffée d’air fraîche […]

It may just be coincidence, but I suspect not. In the last few weeks, we have had three requests for virtual team building exercises, and two projects that (more or less explicitly) are seeking to take the poison out of conflictual situations in a team. My rationalisation is that, after a long time of kicking […]

A very interesting peer-to-peer learning and strategy workshop spread over two days with thirty participants from Asia, Africa and Europe, looking at the question of how to link a diaspora with home countries in a way that brings a win-win for both the individuals concerned and the home country (not to mention the host country […]

After a systemic shock, the first reaction is to try to carry on as before, with as few adaptations as possible. This is exactly what has happened with events after the emergence of COVID-19, as people have bascially put „on-line“ the same sort of event that we had „off-line“. Only after a while, do we […]

I am just returning from running three half-day foresight to strategy workshops in North Africa, which followed hard on the heels of five virtual and hybrid (real & digital) workshops/trainings in the last two weeks. Striking is the difference in energy levels. As a moderator you can generate much more energy and excitement in a […]

Hybrid workshops – a mixture of people in a room and on-line – are increasingly common as COVID restrictions are lifted but as travel is still not back to usual. Having now moderated a few such events, for instance, last week with eight people phyiscally in a room in Tunis, and a similar number on-line […]

Participants from Forteen countries Three continents together during Five days for an intensive knowledge exchange and to build One global team! Thanks to the PEP part of the German Energy Solutions Initiative for the numerous interesting insights into the challenges and rewards of spreading renewable energy in emerging markets, and for being easy on the […]

Too many early warning systems depend on a central staff scanning for signals in a mass of noise. The workshop I ran today was interesting, as it deliberately brought in colelagues from very varied functions – and also different continents, with 15 participating on-line – for a half day session to understand what they see […]