Too many early warning systems depend on a central staff scanning for signals in a mass of noise. The workshop I ran today was interesting, as it deliberately brought in colelagues from very varied functions – and also different continents, with 15 participating on-line – for a half day session to understand what they see […]
Warum verwenden wir Szenarien für die strategische Planung? Weil wir Strategien dadurch robuster und widerstandsfähiger machen, wenn wir sie in verschiedenen plausiblen Zukunftsszenarien testen. Dabei geht allerdings es nicht um Vorhersage im Sinne einer Prophezeiung – das menschliche Gehirn ist eher schlecht darin, Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeiten komplexer Systeme mit multiplen interdependenten Vektoren zu beurteilen. Wenn wir von […]
The Global X Network meeting in Vienna on 28 October brought together a group of researchers from the USA, Japan, Brazil, and Europe, all of whom had a great knowledge of Futures and Foresight. The theme this year was Urban Futures. The key messages from ´Mapping the Urban Future´ and on ´Ramification of Green Urban […]
The Annual Meeting of the OECD Government Foresight Community (GFC) in Paris, 7-8 October, was again a high point for those following the future of governance and strategic foresight. Thanks to Strategic Foresight Counsellor Duncan Cass-Beggs and his excellent team, the Community is growing, with great presentations by Futurists, governments using foresight, researchers and practitioners […]
De nouveau à Paris, en l’occurrence afin donner une perspective supplémentaire aux participants lors de la formation « Atelier de construction de scénarios prospectifs » de Futuribles. Merci à François de Jouvenel, Cécile Désaunay, et Corinne Roëls pour l’invitation. Comme toujours, beaucoup de personnes à rencontrer (merci à Marie-Hélène Caillol, Joshua Polchar, et Jean-Robert Bornand […]
One of the perks of being a methods-based (rather than content expert) foresight and strategy consultant is the variety of sectors you get to work on. Last week it was detergents and agriculture, this week it has so far been renewable energy and (High-school) education, and tomorrow it is about printing!
The International Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning Symposium (IRAHSS) in Singapore is always a highpoint in the agenda for those trying to make sense of the future. Once again a super line-up, with some extremely interesting insights, ranging from the impact of technologies that are currently just below the horizon, through the hidden impact of […]