For mes amis francophones, or those who are prepared to use an automatic translation machine, let me draw your attention to a recent article about the role of gaming in preparing for surprise events, such as a cyber-security attack. The particular interest of this article is it draws on four different individuals an compares and […]
It is great to work with a client over multiple years, to then see how they progress, and if they are on track with plans we made earlier. In the past this was mostly with my chemical company clients, but since 2016 I have had the pleasure of accompanying one part of the German Energy […]
Thanks to the initiative of the OECD secretariat, my colleagues and I had the great pleasure of leading a group of over 60 people from administrations in 24 different parts of the world through a tabletop exercise on the future of the semiconductor industry these last two days. It was outstanding to see that all […]
In a rapidly changing world, foresight is an essential mindset needed. It was great last week to have had the chance to gather a group of 25 like-minded individuals in a dynamic 2D space (Kumospace) from private and public sectors located in Africa, Asia and Europe. Participants were encouraged to navigate in and out of […]
A couple of personal take aways that I draw from a project run for a human resources department. These are my personal take, and deliberately leave out many (much more specific) client learnings. The need for specific technical expertise is not going away – in some cases it may be vital e.g. to check that […]
Back this week from an interesting project to help an company plan the energy transition of one of its (energy-intensive) sites. A couple of observations: The legal certainty created by the Dutch Carbon Tax provides something very tangible to build off. Unlike the Emissions Trading System, it provides a very clear indication of the price […]
(About to be) stuck in an airport? We need more highspeed nonstop train connecting major cities now! This is my personal opinion and wish of many of us here at 4Sing. We are committed to lower our CO2 footprint – which is largely caused by travel. Hence, in the last months we all happily shifted […]
In the last decades a number of political movements have won rural voters with promises to defend local farmers against global capitalism, commonly known as “Food Populism and Politics”. This has been easy enough, as farmers perceive agricultural policy to be an existential issue, whereas the (much more numerous) consumers of food products have, until […]
When I first (officially) started working on multi-stakeholder foresight work 30 years ago, the community was not so big. Fast forward to today, and the numbers engaged has rocketed – and correspondingly it has become harder to know everybody else. It was therefore a great pleasure to see how the Nomads Foundation and I were […]
I very much enjoyed facilitating an on-line conversation of foresight managers from four companies with global reach earlier this week. It would be impossible to do justice to everything that was said, but three new insights for me were: 1. How we measure success: A. Did we get it right? We will never be able to predict […]
John Casti is another co-founder of the Global X-Centers network, and a prolific author on surprises and resilience. Here is his (deliberately very short) take on anticipating eXtreme events:
4Sing is the local branch of the Global X-Centers Network. For eleven years now, we have been working with researchers and practitioners on five continents to identify a theory of surprise and to work out what resilience means and requires of organizations. Just as a teaser on some of the work done, I have interviewed […]
I am just returning from running three half-day foresight to strategy workshops in North Africa, which followed hard on the heels of five virtual and hybrid (real & digital) workshops/trainings in the last two weeks. Striking is the difference in energy levels. As a moderator you can generate much more energy and excitement in a […]
Too many early warning systems depend on a central staff scanning for signals in a mass of noise. The workshop I ran today was interesting, as it deliberately brought in colelagues from very varied functions – and also different continents, with 15 participating on-line – for a half day session to understand what they see […]
The Global X Network meeting in Vienna on 28 October brought together a group of researchers from the USA, Japan, Brazil, and Europe, all of whom had a great knowledge of Futures and Foresight. The theme this year was Urban Futures. The key messages from ´Mapping the Urban Future´ and on ´Ramification of Green Urban […]
The Annual Meeting of the OECD Government Foresight Community (GFC) in Paris, 7-8 October, was again a high point for those following the future of governance and strategic foresight. Thanks to Strategic Foresight Counsellor Duncan Cass-Beggs and his excellent team, the Community is growing, with great presentations by Futurists, governments using foresight, researchers and practitioners […]
De nouveau à Paris, en l’occurrence afin donner une perspective supplémentaire aux participants (présentiels et virtuels) lors de la formation « Atelier de construction de scénarios prospectifs » de Futuribles. Merci à François de Jouvenel, Cécile Désaunay, et Corinne Roëls pour l’invitation. Comme toujours, beaucoup de personnes à rencontrer (merci à Marie-Hélène Caillol, Joshua Polchar, […]
One of the perks of being a methods-based (rather than content expert) foresight and strategy consultant is the variety of sectors you get to work on. Last week it was detergents and agriculture, this week it has so far been renewable energy and (High-school) education, and tomorrow it is about printing!
The International Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning Symposium (IRAHSS) in Singapore is always a highpoint in the agenda for those trying to make sense of the future. Once again a super line-up, with some extremely interesting insights, ranging from the impact of technologies that are currently just below the horizon, through the hidden impact of […]
At this year’s Global X meeting, I was particularly struck by the discussions around Artificial Intelligence and platform economics with the likely enormous impact on all industries. If we can manage to create the platforms correctly, they will not just severely disrupt value chains but also be greener than before. Also of note was the […]
Thanks to Daniele Réchard and her team for organising an excellent day as part of the ESPAS ‘Global Trends to 2030: The Making of a New Geopolitical Order?’ event, and good to see so many friends there, inter alia Angela Wilkinson, Aaron Maniam, Jeanette Kwek, Norbert Reez, Jaana Tapanainen, Kristel Vanderelst, Thomas Lehr, Alun Rhydderch, […]
Thanks to Andres Veiel and Jutta Doberstein for the chance to have co-moderated a fascinating couple of sessions on “Welche Zukunft”at the Deutsches Theater in Berlin. Turning the usual process on its head, we gathered headlines of future news from 250 participants who sacrificed their Saturday to look at how the future may change – […]
