Foresight is the use of future thinking to inform decision making today. Scenarios – qualitatively (not just quantitatively) different futures – are a way of provoking clients to think about the future, about new strategic options and about the robustness of the strategy in these scenarios. The strategy adopted provides a client with a heuristic to judge if an activity should be prioritised, and creates space for ‘probes’ – safe to fail experiments undertaken by the client to test new ideas and approaches.
At 4Sing, we offer an end-to-end process which allows the client to gain insight into current and up-coming challenges and then to decide on a strategy for their organisation. The process itself includes interviews with managers and other relevant individuals (e.g. staff, market experts, customers and suppliers), as well as a couple of workshops. The focus of the first workshop is on goals, key decisions and scenarios: i.e. how that part of the outside world (which has an impact on the client) could change in the future. Then the focus shifts to the strategic options available, judging which options are robust whatever scenario may come to pass, and agreeing on an implementation process.
For mes amis francophones, or those who are prepared to use an automatic translation machine, let me draw your attention to a recent article about the role of gaming in preparing for surprise events, such as a cyber-security attack. The particular interest of this article is it draws on four different individuals an compares and […]
It is great to work with a client over multiple years, to then see how they progress, and if they are on track with plans we made earlier. In the past this was mostly with my chemical company clients, but since 2016 I have had the pleasure of accompanying one part of the German Energy […]
Thanks to the initiative of the OECD secretariat, my colleagues and I had the great pleasure of leading a group of over 60 people from administrations in 24 different parts of the world through a tabletop exercise on the future of the semiconductor industry these last two days. It was outstanding to see that all […]
Lateral leadership is a key challenge in both the public and private sector today. Governments cannot simply decree for something to happen and expect that other stakeholders will do as told, and managers cannot expect departments reporting to other hierarchies will simply follow their instructions. Hence the importance of developing the key points of a strategy together, accross hierarchies and organisations This generates a buy-in, and substantially increases the likihood of other stakeholders implementing it.
At 4Sing, we use inter-active workshops and software-supported processes to guide a group of stakeholders through a series of steps, including: identification of key decision; agreement on the alternative options when taking the key decisions; clarification of the goals of the strategy; testing which strategic option best meets the goals set; agreement on which strategic path is best; identification of the steps needed for implementation and the milestones to measure implementation.
Getting ready for a new era in the GIZ Big changes are on the horizon at GIZ, with a new era of work set to kick off in 2026. As we gear up for this transformation, 2025 will serve as a pivotal year for laying the groundwork. This means not only institutional and organizational shifts, […]
Wargames allow our clients to understand better why other stakeholders in their environment behave as they do, to see the constraints and options the others face and consequently to “live through the future in advance”, by seeing how others will react to our clients moves. Clients have used this technique to understand likely competitor plans, anticipate how suppliers will react when faced with new demands from the client, and to prepare for commercial and legal negotiations with a partner.
At 4Sing, we examine and help to deepen or broaden this business intelligence available regarding the stakeholders that are to be role-played through a series of interviews and own research. In a workshop (usually 2 days, but that depends on the number of participants and level of ambition), the client team then deepens its understanding of these stakeholders, and identifies their likely constraints and strategy. The client can then test how these other stakeholders may react to any given strategic move by the client, and can adjust their plans, or devise counter-measures, in consequence.
The latest @Hamburg Futures Network was great, as we both talked about the role of games in futures thinking, and then played one – “Thing From the Future”. The concept is relatively simple – There are four categories (Archetype, Terrain, Object, Mood). Each category has a pile of cards, and each card has one word […]
For mes amis francophones, or those who are prepared to use an automatic translation machine, let me draw your attention to a recent article about the role of gaming in preparing for surprise events, such as a cyber-security attack. The particular interest of this article is it draws on four different individuals an compares and […]
Who: 40 CEOs and senior executives from companies across France, participated today at a Shift Forum organised by the Shift Project. What: They played a serious game. The objective was to decarbonise the production of a fictional fertiliser company whilst keeping the firm 1. competitive, 2. resilient and 3. with a good reputation. What outcome: […]
Just presented Robert Grayston as an example of a societal resilience game at @Connections (UK) Professional Wargame Practitioners conference in Brunel University. I had great company with presentations from Robert Grayston and Joe Liano in the same slot. As always, I tried to maximised audience interaction, and e.g. asked what the public saw as being […]
A vision is a means of communicating where an organisation wishes to be in a given future period of time. It provides everybody with a clear sense of direction, something that is important, when the terrain is complex or a new business/business model is being tried out. If crafted well, the vision also inspires and motivates staff, and for some it can be part of a “Theory of Change”, explaining how the activities undertaken will lead to the outside world changing in a particular, desired, way.
At 4Sing, we help the client develop a vision that is co-created by selected staff. The process usually includes interviews with key personnel, the use of participatory survey tools and instruments, as well as one or two workshops in which the selected colleagues work through their own views and the inputs received from the interviews and surveys. The workshops focus on identifying key likely changes in the business environment, and translating the management’s understanding of where it would like to be into a visual and descriptive vision of where the company wishes to arrive at. If desired, a Theory of Change, a mission statement and goals can be developed as well.
The latest @Hamburg Futures Network was great, as we both talked about the role of games in futures thinking, and then played one – “Thing From the Future”. The concept is relatively simple – There are four categories (Archetype, Terrain, Object, Mood). Each category has a pile of cards, and each card has one word […]
I just read this piece on “imagining future public careers via fiction”. https://atelierdesfuturs.org/q264-imaginer-les-metiers-publics-de-demain-via-la-fiction/ It fascinated me particularly having already been part of the creation of the scenario that served as the background for a theatre piece written for the Deutsches Theater in Berlin (thanks to @Jutta Doberstein for that !). In this case, the authors […]
Organisations have lots of information at their disposal, and their staff usually know a lot about changes in the operational environment – and what works or does not work in that environment. But the sheer size and geographic spread of organisations often makes it difficult for organisations to share insights in a timely manner. Hence, so as to receive early warnings of problems/opportunities from the ground, and to share best practices, it is useful to create knowledge-sharing networks. Peer-to-peer learning can also be used to share best practices (and mistakes) between organisations, at national and international level
At 4Sing, we help clients design and implement structures for knowledge sharing. The details will vary from case-to-case, but some basic principles usually apply. First the personal incentives of those involved must be aligned with the principle of knowledge sharing if it is to succeed. Secondly, the timing is crucial, as knowledge is needed at particular moments in project cycles and strategy formulation, but will not be valued at other moments. Thirdly, the process of knowledge sharing must be made as easy to use as possible, implying short inputs in bite sized chunks that are tailored to the problem at hand. We help design different methods that respect these principles, ranging from on-line games, through crowd-sourced options, development of communities of practice, up to workshops, case studies and more tailored bite-sized reports.
I just read this piece on “imagining future public careers via fiction”. https://atelierdesfuturs.org/q264-imaginer-les-metiers-publics-de-demain-via-la-fiction/ It fascinated me particularly having already been part of the creation of the scenario that served as the background for a theatre piece written for the Deutsches Theater in Berlin (thanks to @Jutta Doberstein for that !). In this case, the authors […]
Getting ready for a new era in the GIZ Big changes are on the horizon at GIZ, with a new era of work set to kick off in 2026. As we gear up for this transformation, 2025 will serve as a pivotal year for laying the groundwork. This means not only institutional and organizational shifts, […]
It is great to work with a client over multiple years, to then see how they progress, and if they are on track with plans we made earlier. In the past this was mostly with my chemical company clients, but since 2016 I have had the pleasure of accompanying one part of the German Energy […]
In a rapidly changing world, foresight is an essential mindset needed. It was great last week to have had the chance to gather a group of 25 like-minded individuals in a dynamic 2D space (Kumospace) from private and public sectors located in Africa, Asia and Europe. Participants were encouraged to navigate in and out of […]
The rule of thumb is that the urgent will take priority over the important. Implementing a new strategy is of vital importance, but does not always appear so urgent. The risk is therefore that it is agreed upon, but that implementation is patchy. Hence as in a football match, it can be useful to have a trainer available who is not actually involved in the operational tasks, but who can give tips and hints on what to do to the players involved – from the CEO or General Director downwards.
At 4Sing, we sit with the management to identify the implementation path at the end of any strategy formulation processes. As a result, there are a clear set of steps/projects to be implemented, and usually also some “probes” (safe to fail experiments which test out new ideas in practice). We then coach key individuals, or a management team collectively, and our presence, at regular intervals, gives them a reason to check if the steps/projects/probes are being executed or should be modified. We also help them to identify any change management processes that should be introduced to ensure the strategy beds-down.
Just completed a fourth workshop in two years, following up on a strategy decided in 2017. Each workshop has allowed the client to check up on how far the strategy has been implemented, as well as to check what other issues have arisen in the meantime. It is fascinating to see the progress made, and […]
Whilst consultants can help on major projects, there may be a multiplicity of decisions at a client organisation that would benefit from use of tools and methods, and where it makes little sense to have recourse to outsiders from a financial, knowledge retention and security/political sensitivity point of view. Hence the importance of empowering the organisation’s own staff in such methods and tools, to making them part of the DNA of the organisation.
At 4Sing, we have used digital tools in strategy processes, notably the Parmenides EIDOS™ tool suite, for twenty years now, and we are constantly experimenting with new tools and methods to identify when they are best used, and under what conditions they provide most benefit to a clients. As a result, we are often asked to help clients develop templates for decision making workflows using such tools and methods, so as to spread best practice across organisations. We help identify the processes, methods and tools that an organisation needs, as well as training the colleagues who will provide these services in-house or who will train others in this (“train the trainer”). In addition, we backstop/coach the needs of these colleagues and help create best practice manuals if desired.
Staffing constraints and the constant demands of operational matters can make it hard to give the attention that is needed to a strategy or strategic project. Having an outside organisation provide extra resources for the critical moments in a project’s life can therefore make the difference between success and failure. As we are often involved in developing such strategic projects, 4Sing’s staff are well positioned to help out by working in the client’s office for a short spell.
At 4Sing, we offer to place our consultants with a client for up to six months, to help implement a strategic project. Often this is in the start-up phase of a new project, and hence the role often includes executing an already designed implementation plan, or in the absence of that, detailing an implementation plan (taking into consideration other stakeholders interests) and ensuring that existing or new personnel from the client organisation gradually take over responsibility for the project. Hence there is a gradual shift from working on the project itself, to empowering, training and coaching the client’s staff.
No matter how important those participating and interesting the contents, the success of an event depends on its format and the energy is in the room. In the absence of these, participants will not genuinely internalise and still less use the knowledge made available. Hence the importance of taking an outsider who has great experience of making events special, of structuring them in an interactive and interesting way, and who can facilitate/moderate/animate the event with the requisite energy.
At 4Sing, we assist clients with conferences, seminars, panels, and retreats of all shapes and sizes. Before the event starts, we help the client identify the goals, engage with key outsiders (e.g. speakers), and prepare an annotated agenda outlining who does what, when. During the event, we provide one or multiple moderaters, and electronic platforms (e.g. Wisembly) for participants to interact with speakers and each other. After the event, 4Sing summarises the key findings in a document, E-Book or other format. In each case, the event will be tailor made to the clients requirements, and are happy to work with outside agencies that deal with the logistical side of an event.
A fond farewell to Nairobi and the 3rd Humanitarian Energy Conference (HEC). This is one of the few events where you meet both global institutions (UN agencies, INGOs…) and grass roots entrepreneurs (in this case many of whom were also displaced people or refugees who have started up businesses to offer renewable energy). Given that […]
As I discovered today, a morning in the library can be great fun – and better still if it can be used to start a conversation about how to increase resilience of our local community. An initiative of the @B @R and I had the pleasure of running two parallel games of Neustart. Our 16 […]
The future is often already with us… just it is unevenly distributed. That means, it can already be seen in another location, as can a range of best practices, alternative ways of doing things, and ideas for improvement! By taking a carefully selected group of individuals to a different location, a lot can be learned – at least if the learning journey is structured in such a way as to ensure that those travelling have the possibility to internalise what they see, and to process what it means for them.
At 4Sing, we help clients to set their goals, plan the journey, identify the best places to go and best people to meet, as well as to structure it in a way that participants can transfer what they discover into their own context, so they can answer “so what does this mean for me and my work/ organisation/ region”. We also accompany and facilitate expert sessions and visits. In some cases (depending on geography) we help organize the logistics on the ground. In the process we enhance the relevance of the learning experience for the participants and reduce the organisational load on the client.
Just completed training as a white belt (lowest level) facilitator for Climate Fresk. Together with @Rosario, our ambition is to use the game in the local community here to develop a conversation around what becoming more climate friendly and sustainability means for (in our case) a suburb of Hamburg. Just a couple of thoughts around […]
Professionally I help others think about how the future may impact decisions they should take today. It is therefore unsurprising that I spend some of my private time doing the same thing. As a member of the “Blankense Future Forum”, we have many projects going, for instance on the future mobility needs of our bit […]
