Author: Adrian

Very much enjoyed the Luxembourg Strategy event yesterday. Here is a country leading the way by setting out a vision – which has been wind tunnelled for robustness in different scenarios – for a zero carbon future. Moreover, it not just promotes carbon mitigation, it takes explicit account of inclusivity – the need to keep citizens on-board. […]

Back this week from an interesting project to help an company plan the energy transition of one of its (energy-intensive) sites.  A couple of observations: The legal certainty created by the Dutch Carbon Tax provides something very tangible to build off. Unlike the Emissions Trading System, it provides a very clear indication of the price […]

If you are currently despairing, try “The ministry for the future” by Kim Stanley Robinson. It is a work of fiction that does not fall into the trap of being utopian. Each step forward is assorted with caveats, resistance, and steps back. But it suggests how a combination of human action, technology, and new thinking […]

When I first (officially) started working on multi-stakeholder foresight work 30 years ago, the community was not so big. Fast forward to today, and the numbers engaged has rocketed – and correspondingly it has become harder to know everybody else. It was therefore a great pleasure to see how the Nomads Foundation and I were […]

A great pleasure to have co-moderated the Union for Mediterranean’s trade and investment forum today for the third time. I had the pleasure of two excellent panels – on trade facilitation and sustainable investment – brimming with expertise. Among the many gems, the things that struck me were: 1. Progress on trade facilitation in the region […]

I very much enjoyed facilitating an on-line conversation of foresight managers from four companies with global reach earlier this week. It would be impossible to do justice to everything that was said, but three new insights for me were: 1.      How we measure success: A. Did we get it right? We will never be able to predict […]

Should governments conduct foresight? Or just react faster? Thanks to Alun Rhydderch for talking with me about this theme. An active participant in the Global X-Center Network, Alun has a lot of experience working with and for various governments

A highly enjoyable workshop with a client on Monday about the challenges of returning to the office after the Summer. We agreed it will not be going “back to usual” as: A. COVID will still be an issue, even where vaccinations are widespread. B. We have learnt a lot thanks to COVID and want to […]

John Casti is another co-founder of the Global X-Centers network, and a prolific author on surprises and resilience. Here is his (deliberately very short) take on anticipating eXtreme events:

4Sing is the local branch of the Global X-Centers Network. For eleven years now, we have been working with researchers and practitioners on five continents to identify a theory of surprise and to work out what resilience means and requires of organizations.  Just as a teaser on some of the work done, I have interviewed […]

J’ai animé un séminaire avec 50 participants super intéressants ce vendredi et samedi passé pour discuter de l’avenir d’une organisation associative en France. La vision propose de créer de la propriété intellectuelle pour le partager avec d’autres (soit en le donnant gratis, soit en établissant des organisations qui le répandissent) est une bouffée d’air fraîche […]

It may just be coincidence, but I suspect not. In the last few weeks, we have had three requests for virtual team building exercises, and two projects that (more or less explicitly) are seeking to take the poison out of conflictual situations in a team. My rationalisation is that, after a long time of kicking […]

A very interesting peer-to-peer learning and strategy workshop spread over two days with thirty participants from Asia, Africa and Europe, looking at the question of how to link a diaspora with home countries in a way that brings a win-win for both the individuals concerned and the home country (not to mention the host country […]

After a systemic shock, the first reaction is to try to carry on as before, with as few adaptations as possible. This is exactly what has happened with events after the emergence of COVID-19, as people have bascially put “on-line” the same sort of event that we had “off-line”. Only after a while, do we […]

I am just returning from running three half-day foresight to strategy workshops in North Africa, which followed hard on the heels of five virtual and hybrid (real & digital) workshops/trainings in the last two weeks. Striking is the difference in energy levels. As a moderator you can generate much more energy and excitement in a […]

Hybrid workshops – a mixture of people in a room and on-line – are increasingly common as COVID restrictions are lifted but as travel is still not back to usual. Having now moderated a few such events, for instance, last week with eight people phyiscally in a room in Tunis, and a similar number on-line […]

Participants from Forteen countries Three continents together during Five days for an intensive knowledge exchange and to build One global team! Thanks to the PEP part of the German Energy Solutions Initiative for the numerous interesting insights into the challenges and rewards of spreading renewable energy in emerging markets, and for being easy on the […]

Too many early warning systems depend on a central staff scanning for signals in a mass of noise. The workshop I ran today was interesting, as it deliberately brought in colelagues from very varied functions – and also different continents, with 15 participating on-line – for a half day session to understand what they see […]

Just completed a short workshop that was a mixture of knowledge sharing, project planning and organisational development. In a short day, the dozen participants were able to identify the similarities and differences between what they were doing in four countries, and to agree on the mechanisms for keeping up an exchange of knowledge on contents […]

A week in Cotonou Benin runing a knowledge sharing event in French and English, with 70 participants based in 12 African and Asian countries focused on food and nutritional security. C’était merveilleux de voir comment les participants de différents pays et continents ont réussi – malgré les barrières linguistiques – d’apprendre les uns des autres. […]

Just back from Kampala, where the rain is still falling, even if rainy season is supposedly over. Luckily the stakeholder consultation I was helping to run was about application of renewable energy (for displaced persons), so hopefully it could make a (tiny) contribution to reducing future climate change, whilst giving energy to those who are […]

Super weather in both Yerevan and Kiev: October and sweating after a 20-minute walk from the hotel to the workshop location! And just as the climate is “improving”, so the opportunities for the “investment climate” are also getting better. In both countries, following the changes in government, reform plans that were previously off the agenda, […]

De nouveau à Paris, en l’occurrence afin donner une perspective supplémentaire aux participants lors de la formation « Atelier de construction de scénarios prospectifs » de Futuribles. Merci à François de Jouvenel, Cécile Désaunay, et Corinne Roëls pour l’invitation. Comme toujours, beaucoup de personnes à rencontrer (merci à Marie-Hélène Caillol, Joshua Polchar, et Jean-Robert Bornand […]

One of the perks of being a methods-based (rather than content expert) foresight and strategy consultant is the variety of sectors you get to work on. Last week it was detergents and agriculture, this week it has so far been renewable energy and (High-school) education, and tomorrow it is about printing!

Just completed a fourth workshop in two years, following up on a strategy decided in 2017. Each workshop has allowed the client to check up on how far the strategy has been implemented, as well as to check what other issues have arisen in the meantime. It is fascinating to see the progress made, and […]

The local lore claims that St Andrew planted a stick in the ground on this hillside and declared that one day a city would grow here. Kiev is the result, and St Andrew’s church is built on the spot. The location of the annual event I just ran was directly across from here, and large […]

The International Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning Symposium (IRAHSS) in Singapore is always a highpoint in the agenda for those trying to make sense of the future. Once again a super line-up, with some extremely interesting insights, ranging from the impact of technologies that are currently just below the horizon, through the hidden impact of […]

It was a pleasure again being with Thomas Fohgrub and friends in Geneva, discussing possible pathways for the transition for humanitarian agencies to use renewable energy to power their operations. Click on the image below to stay tuned:

Last week was spent on Organisational Development work for a client that has just received additional tasks, and new personnel – and correspondingly needs to review internal roles and procedures. As part of this, there was a retreat in Landgut Stober. This had once been a “model farm” where an anti-Hitler group met to plan […]

It was a pleasure to return again to Cairo, and to have the chance to work with my dear friend Leena Ilmola to co-moderate the Union for the Mediterranean‘s first “Business Forum”. The speakers and organisers were excellent, and a real highlight for me (perhaps also as I could just relax and listen to that […]

Just completed work on a “Theory of Change” for a client that is seeking to have a real impact on climate change. Having identified what the client is good at doing, and at what others in their environment are already doing well (and hence, that the client does not need to repeat), a couple of […]

We just ran a 2-day event for GIZ in Kachreti, Georgia, where participants from all 3 Southern Caucuses countries developed sustainable cross-border touristic products. Gold was a theme, as we Learnt of a trove of archaeological findings showing the region as a cradle of civilisation which then gave rise to the golden fleece myth; Discussed […]

At this year’s Global X meeting, I was particularly struck by the discussions around Artificial Intelligence and platform economics with the likely enormous impact on all industries. If we can manage to create the platforms correctly, they will not just severely disrupt value chains but also be greener than before. Also of note was the […]

Just been helping a client to role-play a major competitor, and consequently refine their strategy.  A number of interesting insights emerged – a combination of bringing many perspectives together, and breathing life into the business intelligence already gathered. Particularly of note though, was that the existing strategy (which we already developed with the client two […]

Interesting to realise just how exposed SE Asia potentially is to a major change in the (relatively broadly defined) electronics sector. The affirmation here is that electronics is “equivalent to 25 percent of the region’s total exports in goods.”

Just moderated a mini-workshop on electricity supply for the European Calculator project, as part of the out-reach to co-design a model that will help decision makers judge the impact of different policy levers when trying to reach the Paris Agreement commitments on climate change. Particularly interesting to me was the bullishness of what was considered […]

A very interesting report on 10 trends shaping migration. Bravo the European Political Strategy Centre! (screenshot from website, click on picture to go to document)

In beautiful Delft to run a workshop on possible social impact of alternative Climate Change Mitigation options! Some things are obvious – no coal means unemployment in coal producing regions –  but now we need to tease out the less obvious implications for anything from gender equality to energy poverty…  Thanks EU Calc!

See SWP’s publication here Whilst there is a correlation between poor countries getting richer, and higher migration (when you are dirt poor, you cannot pay for a rogue to transport you), they list multiple other factors that shape migration, e.g: demographic change with more youth, structural economic change with rural to urban drift, inequality, access […]

Thanks to Daniele Réchard and her team for organising an excellent day as part of the ESPAS ‘Global Trends to 2030: The Making of a New Geopolitical Order?’ event, and good to see so many friends there, inter alia Angela Wilkinson, Aaron Maniam, Jeanette Kwek, Norbert Reez, Jaana Tapanainen, Kristel Vanderelst, Thomas Lehr, Alun Rhydderch, […]

Together with four of my colleagues am busy running a retreat for the 60 staff of Enterprise Georgia in Kachreti, a major wine producing region in the country.  An enjoyable mixture of role-playing stakeholders, developing strategy and fantastic countryside!

Last night I was a speaker in the e-conference “Looking at the Catalan crisis from a European angle“. Listening to the arguments, it struck me that the voices we hear on both sides – Spanish and Catalan – are mainly the nationalist ones: Catalan nationalists point out that even today Catalan is not an official  […]

This may be another example of the law of unintended consequences. By training the military from countries with weaker African states, the EU aims to support them in joining Peace-Keeping Operations in theatres where we do not wish to send our own troops. But better trained officers are more effectively able to seize power with […]

An interesting piece at a number of levels, as it: Is written by the President of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association. Sure, in the last decade, China has wiped out many competitors here, but the surprise is the language used – it could have come from a Western green developmentalist. A timely reminder that China […]

Thanks to Andres Veiel and Jutta Doberstein for the chance to have co-moderated a fascinating couple of sessions on “Welche Zukunft”at the Deutsches Theater in Berlin. Turning the usual process on its head, we gathered headlines of future news from 250 participants who sacrificed their Saturday to look at how the future may change – […]

Just facilitated a very interesting conference on “Energy for Displaced People: A Global Plan of Action for Sustainable Energy Solutions in Situations of Displacement”. Most striking: this is a clear reaffirmation that nobody should be left behind with regards to access to energy (as per SDG 7) – not even those displaced by conflict or […]

Just completed a two-day workshop which involved distance participation from Kabul. The technology worked really well on day one, and even in a highly-interactive workshop format (no powerpoints, no presentations, only joint work on pin-boards) they were really well involved (at one point, we were all standing, and so were they in front of the […]

Excellent to have spent the last couple of days with colleagues from the South Caucuses, accompanying them on a learning journey through Germany to discover different opportunities in the green economy. The week lived from the excellent inputs received by a number of speakers, both at the seminar centre we used as a base, and […]